On 16 July 1999, the son of former President John F. Kennedy took off in his privately-owned Piper Saratoga from New Jersey bound for Martha's Vineyard. Although he held a private pilot's license without an instrument rating, he departed in marginal weather at night. Accompanied by his wife, Carolyn Bessette and her sister, they would never be seen again.
This post starts from a hypothesis that the NTSB is what it identifies itself as - "an independent Federal agency charged by Congress with investigating every civil aviation accident the United States." Using rational thought and empirical evidence, a brief summary of the mishap events followed by a list of contributing and causal factors will be explored.
MISHAP NARRATIVE
On the evening of 16 July 1999, John F. Kennedy, Jr departed from Essex County Airport (CDW) in his privately owned Piper Saratoga with his wife Carolyn Bessette and her sister Lauren. The flight plan was destined for Barnstable Municipal-Boardman/Polando Field (HYA), with a scheduled stop at Martha's Vineyard Airport (MVY).
"About 7 miles from the approaching shore, the airplane began a right turn. The airplane stopped its descent at 2,200 feet, then climbed back to 2,600 feet and entered a left turn. While in the left turn, the airplane began another descent that reached about 900 fpm. During this turn, the airplane's rate of descent and airspeed increased. The airplane's rate of descent eventually exceeded 4,700 fpm, and the airplane struck the water in a nose-down attitude."
THE AIRCRAFT
The mishap airplane, N9253N, was a Piper PA-32R-301, Saratoga II, single-engine, low-wing airplane with retractable landing gear. Upon recovery of the wreckage, there were no significant mechanical failures demonstrated upon analysis of the wreckage and flight data recorder.
INTERPRETATION: The aircraft was documented to be airworthy without any significant discrepancy prior to flight. All evidence corroborated a scenario in which the aircraft was rapidly descending and engaged in an aggressive right turn upon impact.
CONTRIBUTING FACTORS TO MISHAP
Meteorological Conditions (Weather)
Preflight weather called for VFR (visual flight rules) conditions. However, pilots who had flown over the Long Island Sound on the night of the accident stated that over Martha's Vineyard "there was nothing to see. There was no horizon and no light."
INTERPRETATION: The weather had deteriorated considerably from preflight conditions. The existence of a persistent visible horizon seems unlikely. In the event of haze and lack of a discernable horizon, spatial disorientation becomes a common and dangerous risk factor.
Pilot Experience
JFK Jr had started his flight instruction almost 17 years before the fatal mishap. By 16 July 1999, he was enrolled in an instrument rating course and had completed 12 of 25 lessons, but did not yet possess an instrument rating. His logbook demonstrated 310 hours of total flight time, 55 of which were at night.
One of JFK Jr's CFI stated that the pilot had the ability to fly the airplane without a visible horizon but may have had difficulty performing additional tasks under such conditions.
Physical Health
According to medical records, Kennedy fractured his left ankle in a hang gliding accident, underwent surgical fixation in June 1999. By the date of the mishap, 6 weeks after his ankle injury, Kennedy had been placed in a Cam-Walker and was using a cane.
Toxicological testing was performed on the human remains, which were negative for any presence of drugs or alcohol.
NTSB CONCLUSION
The NTSB determined that the probable cause of this accident was "the pilot's failure to maintain control of the airplane during a descent over water at night, which was a result of spatial disorientation." Spatial disorientation due to the haze over water at night likely led to Kennedy losing his orientation and control of the aircraft.